North Korea's military parade Saturday in Pyongyang marks the 105th anniversary of the birth of founder Kim Il Sung. (Photo: Reuters/Newscom)
Not only is the current showdown with North Korea unlikely to lead to a military conflict, it is likely that all the countries involved will walk away believing they have achieved something for their side. In fact, it could be the perfect storm of crisis diplomacy that’s a win-win for everybody—for now.
Pyongyang gets the world’s attention. Kim family diplomacy requires that the world see its regime as a dangerous, unpredictable menace. Otherwise, why would anybody care to deal with the world’s poorest nation at the far end of the planet? Usually the annual military parade gets no more attention than a joke on the late-night shows. This time around, Kim Jong Un’s half-serious salute got worldwide coverage. The question for Kim is how to parlay fear-mongering into some kind of strategic advantage.
Seoul and Tokyo got a big reassurance of commitment from Washington, as the U.S. rushed to show both that we’d honor our obligations to mutual defense. Nothing says we care like an armada of ships and a fleet of nuclear-capable bombers.
Beijing used the crisis to establish a rapport with the new U.S. president. Rather than stiff-arm President Donald Trump or play rope-a-dope, President Xi Jinping adopted a let’s make-a-deal attitude.
Washington got to look strong, too. In a little over a week, Trump met with top foreign leaders, including Xi, dealt with the situation in Korea, and handled a crisis in Syria. For a fledgling administration led by a president with little foreign policy chops, that was a damn decent performance. That Trump navigated through the crisis, so far, so well is a hopeful indicator that he will deliver a mature and responsible foreign policy. Indeed, signs point in that direction.
By giving all the players involved enough space to save face, Washington helped defuse rather than escalate the crisis.
The question is: Where do we go from here?
Getting through the day without starting World War III doesn’t solve the threat of a nuclear-armed North Korea. The White House needs a sustained responsible policy. The Chinese are not going to solve the problem. Kim is never going to voluntarily give up his nukes.
Just talking will get us nowhere. What is needed is a serious long-term plan that might create future opportunities for de-escalation, something Heritage Foundation expert Bruce Klingner was pressing for even before the crisis started.
The good news is that Trump has weathered the challenge so far. The administration is following the right playbook: maximum pressure but not regime change.
But there is more to be done.
For sure, the U.S. needs to send clearer signals that it is not planning to ratchet up tensions.
While the announced part of the next-step policy seems good, the sanctions portion, including enforcing existing U.S. law, might well be put on hold pending action by China. It’s a problem that China always underperforms on its promises. Trump should not wait long for Beijing to deliver before really turning up the heat on sanctions.
[bold and italics emphasis mine]
James Jay Carafano, a leading expert in national security and foreign policy challenges, is The Heritage Foundation’s vice president for foreign and defense policy studies, E. W. Richardson fellow, and director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies. Read his research.
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"To clasp the hands in prayer is the beginning of an uprising against the disorder of the world." - Karl Barth; "Prayer is inviting God into a seemingly impossible situation and trusting/resting in His love and grace to accomplish His perfect will in His perfect time and for His greatest glory." - Stan
PLEASE BE IN PRAYER FOR THE PEOPLE OF SYRIA [from OpenDoors.org]
2/7 American Center for Law and Justice: American Pastor Andrew Brunson still languishes in a Turkish prison. He’s one of 19 prisoners in a 10-person cell. He’s the only Christian. Pastor Andrew has been falsely charged with “membership in an armed terrorist organization.” He has served and loved the people of Turkey for more than two decades. Now this U.S. citizen is in extreme danger – falsely charged for his Christian faith. We are representing his family and have launched an aggressive global campaign demanding that Turkey – a fellow member of NATO – release him immediately. We’re working on Capitol Hill with our nation’s leaders, through our international offices, and around the globe to secure the release of Pastor Andrew. Now, we are preparing to send a critical legal letter to Turkey’s president in the next few days. Time is of the essence. Sign our letter before we send it. Join the fight. Be Pastor Andrew’s voice. He needs it now more than ever.Sign Our Petition: Free American Pastor Andrew Brunson.https://aclj.org/persecuted-church/free-american-pastor-andrew-brunson
PRAY FOR AMERICA: THANK GOD for His many blessings on America throughout it's history. May we then ask that AMERICA once again be a blessing TO GOD, by once again submitting to HIS will in our affairs - both personal and national - that He may truly "heal our land." (2 Chron. 7:14) Short of that, we should not be saying "God Bless America"but instead "God be merciful towards America!"
PRAY FOR OUR LEADERS: 1) Pray for President Trump and his advisers, that they would select Godly leaders at the federal level who will be accountable to do an excellent job (or be fired!) ; that he would seek God's wisdom and be enabled to lead our country effectively in the years ahead; and 2) Pray our leaders at every level of government will Spirit-filled, leading us with Godly wisdom and integrity; that they will only pass legislation and enact policies that will benefit Americans today as well as future generations and NOT do any lasting harm.
SUPREME COURT: PRAY 1) that the Senate will quickly confirm Judge Gorsuch for the Supeme Court, and 2) that the justices will only hand down decisions that are Constitutionally sound and in the best interests of our country now and for future generations.
A Christian Mother's Mandatory Death Penalty Could Be Overturned. PRAY and Sign the Petition Now! - https://aclj.org/persecuted-church/save-christian-mom-asia-bibi-from-execution?
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