"A LESSON IN RACIAL POLITICS FROM FLORIDA" - Star Parker: Nov 21, 2018; https://townhall.com/columnists/starparker/2018/11/21/a-lesson-in-racial-politics-from-florida-n2536285 [AS I SEE IT: Of course, no one will no for sure what led to the margin of victory for Gov.-elect DeSantis. While the following may just be speculation, it makes a valid - and intriguing - point that conservatives need to be consider as they look to the elections of 2020. - Stan]
Now that, finally, the elections in Florida have reached a conclusion, there are lessons worth learning. One is on the subject of race.
There was a fateful anomaly in racial voting in the governor's race between Democrat Andrew Gillum and Republican Rick DeSantis, now Florida's governor-elect. Given that Gillum, formerly mayor of Tallahassee, was running to become the first black governor of Florida, we might have expected black enthusiasm for his candidacy on the order of the waves of black enthusiasm for the presidential candidacy of Barack Obama. But it didn't happen.
Gillum received a lower percentage of the black vote than did Democrat Senator Bill Nelson, who lost to Rick Scott in the senate race. White Democrat Nelson got 90 percent of the black vote and Republican Scott got 10 percent.
In the governor's race, black Democrat Gillum got 86 percent of the black vote, four percentage points less than Nelson, against Republican DeSantis' 14 percent. Given the razor-thin margins, that difference in black support meant a lot.
When Gillum finally conceded the election, he was behind by 33,683 votes. Each 1 percent of the black vote equated to about 10,000 votes. So if Gillum had received 90 percent of the black vote, as did Bill Nelson, rather than 86 percent, he could well have had another 40,000 votes, which would have been his margin of victory. Forty thousand votes is about 35 percent of the 112,911 votes by which Donald Trump won Florida in 2016. It's 55 percent of the 73,189 votes by which Barack Obama won Florida in 2012.
So understanding why Gillum received 4 percentage points less of the black vote than Nelson, and why DeSantis received 4 percentage points more of the black vote than Scott could make all the difference in what presidential candidate wins Florida in 2020.
Adding to the puzzle is the fact that racial politics played a high profile and nasty role in the Gillum-DeSantis contest. Gillum was aggressive in his allegations of racism against DeSantis. "Now, I'm not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist, I'm simply saying the racists believe he is racist," he said. He accused DeSantis of getting financial support from white supremacist groups and speaking at their events.
DeSantis, a conservative former Republican congressman, made his support of Trump a centerpiece of his campaign, and President Trump campaigned for him in Florida.
So how does this all compute?
One convincing line of speculation is that DeSantis campaigned aggressively on parental choice in education and keeping in place and expanding the tax-credit scholarship program enacted under Governor Jeb Bush. Gillum campaigned on closing down the program, which empowers parents to use these funds to send their children to charter and private schools.
Polls consistently show that blacks support parental choice in education. And for good reason. Black children are disproportionately trapped in failing, violent public schools. Black parents want alternatives for their kids. Gillum took the left-wing party line on education choice, against the sentiments of black constituents. This could have made all the difference.
The lesson here is that blacks care about issues more than they care about skin color.
It's an important lesson for Republicans going forward. They need to tune in to black concerns, which often are not the same as those of whites, and explain how the best solutions for those concerns are the conservative solutions.
In addition to education, this means addressing issues such as housing, urban violence and prison reform.
The governor's race in Florida gives us good reason to believe that a more aggressive, targeted effort by Republicans in reaching out to minority communities could make all the difference in the outcome of the presidential election in 2020.
[italics and colored emphasis mine]
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"DeSantis Gets Unexpected Boost From African-American ‘School-Choice Moms’" - John Haughey / @JFHaughey58 / November 28, 2018; https://www.dailysignal.com/2018/11/28/desantis-gets-unexpected-boost-from-african-american-school-choice-moms
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Focus for November: Praying for Pakistan -It is No. 5 on the 2018 World Watch List and has almost 4 million believers (out of a general population of 197 million). Converts who gather for worship face great risk. They are followed and monitored, and anyone who meets with them is investigated as well. Throughout November, Open Doors is focusing on strengthening our persecuted family in Pakistan.
November 26 | HORN OF AFRICA - Please pray for sister A, fighting for custody of her 11-year-old son. The boy lived with her ex-husband, but he was exposed to immorality, alcohol and drugs. He begged to live with his mom, and now the two of them are in hiding. The husband is threatening both of them if she does not return him.
*Name has been changed to protect identity. |
This article claims a causal relationship between Gillum's choice to take away parental choice in education and his loss in Florida over 33k black votes that he did not obtain. The article thus concludes that race is not a major factor in obtaining the black vote. It is a politician's responsibility to earn the trust of his constituents... otherwise his only responsibility would be to simply be the lesser of two evils in the eyes of the voters.
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